Election Result
Extract from Hansard
[COUNCIL — Thursday, 10 April 2025]
p156 - 165
Hon Peter Collier; Hon Kate Doust, Hon Jackie Jarvis; Hon Tjorn Sibma; Hon Dr Steve Thomas; Hon Neil Thomson, Hon Wilson Tucker
Hon Dr Steve Thomas (South West Region) (11:18 am): Thank you, Acting President, for five minutes to make a brief contribution to the debate on this motion. First off, obviously congratulations to the government on its victory. It was another significant victory. Unfortunately for us, it was the second-worst result I think in the history of the Liberal Party in any jurisdiction, beaten only by our 2021 result. Just a few quick numbers. In 2021, the two-party preferred vote was 70:30. In 2025, it was 57:43, both obviously to the Labor Party. The election in 2017 is probably a better comparison when the two-party preferred vote was 55.5% Labor Party and 44.5% to the Liberal Party, as I understand it. So it was slightly worse than the 2017 results.
It is a very difficult set of circumstances, but there is one group of people in particular that I want to talk about because there were a couple of variations for them. The people who I think are most disenfranchised—I am sure the Labor Party has worked this out— are people in rural and regional Western Australia where the actual numbers are slightly different.
If we look at the lower house and compare metropolitan and country seats won in the 2017 election, which is probably the best comparison with the 2025 election, the Liberal vote for metropolitan seats actually went down 5%, but in regional Western Australia, it went up 2.5%. The impact on regional seats—
Hon Darren West:
Hon Dr Steve Thomas: These are all a very low base, member, so let us not get too excited. But we do have an increase there. I think one issue is going to be respect for regional Western Australia. Regional Western Australia appears to be disengaging with the love of the Labor Party faster than its metropolitan cousins, so there is a message for the Labor Party going forward. If there is somebody, according to the motion, who feels ignored by the government, it is without doubt rural and regional Western Australia. What will be the impact of that? There are a couple of bits and pieces in here. I have to say, I had a fairly good indication of what the result was going to be. Here is something that is coming out of school: what happens on a trip stays on a trip, but, in this case, I did some commentary for the ABC, and I met Antony Green, of whom I am a great fan. He came up to me at the start and said, "I've read your predictions, Steve." I had sent in my predictions to the ABC the week before. He said, "You're far too pessimistic." He came up to me at the end of the show and basically said, "Okay, no, you're actually pretty well accurate." In fact, I run a little sweepstake in the South West, and in the last three elections I have got within a couple of seats of the outcome pretty reliably. In fact, although people on my side tend to think I am a pessimist, in the last three sweepstakes I have actually overestimated our result by a couple of seats. But I did expect a significant change in regional Western Australia, and I think that is exactly what we have seen. What is the result of that? I guess that will be the significant question, because the numbers and swings that I gave members before were the lower house numbers— the house of that other chamber that shall not be named—but I think it is interesting to see what is going on in the upper house. We do not actually have the final results yet. Ultimately, if only one seat in the guesses of the ABC changes, I will have won my sweepstake again, so we will see how we go. If the Liberals pick up one more seat in the end, I will be the victor on combined houses.
Let us have a look at this. For the Labor Party, 2021 was a high point. The Labor Party had 10 members of the Legislative Council coming from regional Western Australia in the old system under which we had six regions. The election of 2017 might be a better example, when the Labor Party had six members of the Legislative Council coming from the regions—two each from the Ag, Mining and Pastoral and South West Regions. But what is likely to happen in the current Parliament? It is a pity the minister has already spoken, because she cannot respond, but I would be interested to know how many members of the incoming upper house are going to be from regional Western Australia. Two of the ministers, including my good friend—I nearly said "my old friend"; that would be rude!—the Minister for Agriculture and Food and my good friend the Minister for Regional Development, are both regional members, which is great to see, and my sparring partner of the past, Hon Sandra Carr, I believe still comes from Geraldton way. It appears that none of the other sitting members of the Labor Party from regional WA got a guernsey. I would be interested to know how many of the incoming members are regional members coming into the Parliament. Perhaps by way of interjection, minister, how many of the incoming members of the upper house team are regional Western Australian members?
Hon Stephen Dawson:
Hon Dr Steve Thomas: I am expecting the Labor Party to go from 10 at its peak regional members in the Legislative Council to six at 2017, which was still a big win for it, to, what, three now?
Hon Stephen Dawson:
Hon Dr Steve Thomas: It was six in 2017, now it is down to three. What has happened? It is a decimation
